🎯 2025 December SOM
Position targets, seasonal strategies, and your action plan for 2026
📊 Your Position Targets
GTLB (GitLab)
Roth IRA🛑 FLOOR (Stop Loss - SELL if it hits this)
When to sell: If GTLB drops to $33.20, SELL ALL 93 shares
Why: Thesis is broken, January Effect failed, cut losses
🚀 CEILING (Profit Targets - SELL when it hits these)
| Target | Price | Total Value | Profit | When to Sell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | $48.00 | $4,464 | +$954 (+27%) | SELL 25 shares (take 25% off) |
| Target 2 | $54.50 | $5,069 | +$1,559 (+44%) | SELL 50 shares (take 50% off) |
| Target 3 | $65.00 | $6,045 | +$2,535 (+72%) | SELL remaining 18 shares |
IOT (Samsara)
Roth IRA🛑 FLOOR (Stop Loss - SELL if it hits this)
When to sell: If IOT drops to $31.40, SELL ALL 126 shares
Why: Thesis is broken, January Effect failed, cut losses
🚀 CEILING (Profit Targets - SELL when it hits these)
| Target | Price | Total Value | Profit | When to Sell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | $45.00 | $5,670 | +$1,174 (+26%) | SELL 30 shares (take 25% off) |
| Target 2 | $50.75 | $6,395 | +$1,899 (+42%) | SELL 60 shares (take 50% off) |
| Target 3 | $60.00 | $7,560 | +$3,064 (+68%) | SELL remaining 36 shares |
🎯 Combined Portfolio Targets
| Scenario | GTLB Value | IOT Value | Total | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLOOR (Stop Loss) | $3,088 | $3,956 | $7,044 | $-962 (-12%) |
| Entry (Today) | $3,510 | $4,496 | $8,006 | $0 |
| Target 1 (Partial) | $4,464 | $5,670 | $10,134 | +$2,128 (+27%) |
| Target 2 (Main) | $5,069 | $6,395 | $11,464 | +$3,458 (+43%) |
| Target 3 (Stretch) | $6,045 | $7,560 | $13,605 | +$5,599 (+70%) |
📅 Timeline Expectations
FLOOR ($33.20/$31.40)
If this happens: January-February 2026
Probability: 15-20%
Action: Cut losses immediately, move on
TARGET 1 ($48/$45)
Expected: February-March 2026
Probability: 65-70%
Action: Take 25% profit, let rest run
TARGET 2 ($54.50/$50.75)
Expected: March-May 2026
Probability: 60-65%
Action: Take majority profit, keep 20% for upside
TARGET 3 ($65/$60)
Expected: June-December 2026
Probability: 30-40%
Action: Sell everything, massive win!
⚠️ CRITICAL RULES - MEMORIZE THESE
NEVER remove stop losses
❌ "It'll come back" - NO! Cut losses at -12%
✅ Sell at $33.20/$31.40, no exceptions
TAKE profits at targets
❌ "Let me wait for more" - Greed kills gains
✅ Sell 25% at Target 1, 50% at Target 2
DON'T check prices every day
❌ Daily checking = emotional decisions
✅ Set alerts, check weekly only
IGNORE short-term noise
❌ "It's down 3% today, should I sell?"
✅ Only care about the stop loss level
TAX-FREE reminder
✅ All profits = TAX-FREE in Roth IRA! 🎉 $3,458 profit = $3,458 you KEEP!
📅 Seasonal Trading Strategies
10 proven seasonal patterns you can use throughout 2026
January Effect
Stocks that were sold for tax losses in December often bounce back in January as investors buy them back.
- Buy: December 31 (last trading day)
- Hold: Through January
- Sell: February-March when targets hit
GTLB/IOT positions - bought Dec 31, 2025
Santa Claus Rally
Stock market tends to rally in the last week of December and first two trading days of January.
- Buy: Dec 20-27 (S&P 500 index fund or strong stocks)
- Hold: Dec 28 - Jan 2 (let the rally play out)
- Sell: Jan 3-5 (take profits before January Effect stocks take over)
Buy SPY on Dec 20 @ $600, Sell Jan 3 @ $610 = +1.7% in 2 weeks
Sell in May and Go Away
Stock market historically weaker May-October, strong November-April.
- Strategy A (Conservative): Buy Nov 1, Sell May 1, Hold cash May-Oct
- Strategy B (Aggressive): Buy Nov 1, Sell May 1, SHORT market May-Oct, Cover Nov 1
2024: Buy SPY Nov 1 @ $550, Sell May 1 @ $600 = +9% gain. Sit in cash May-Oct (avoid -3% decline). Total advantage: +12% vs buy-and-hold
September Effect
September is historically the WORST month for stocks. Average return: -1.1% (only negative month).
- Defensive: Aug 25 - Sell volatile stocks, move to cash (avoid -1% to -3%)
- Bargain Hunt: Sep 25 - Buy stocks that got oversold (+2% to +5% Oct rally)
- Options Play: Sep 1 - Buy PUT options on QQQ (+10% to +30% if market drops)
Sell Aug 31, buy back Sep 30 = Avoid -1%, catch +1% = +2% edge
FOMC/Fed Meeting Pattern
Stock market tends to rally BEFORE Fed meetings and sell off AFTER (if no rate cut).
- 7 days before FOMC: Usually rallies +0.5% to +1.5% → BUY 5-7 days before
- Day of announcement: Volatile, spiky → HOLD or SELL if rate cut
- 1-3 days after: Usually sells off -0.5% to -1% → SELL if no rate cut
2026 FOMC Dates: Jan 28-29, Mar 18-19, May 6-7, Jun 17-18. Expected edge: +1% to +2% per cycle = 8% per year (8 meetings)
Earnings Season Patterns
Stocks behave predictably around earnings: run-up 2 weeks before, pop/drop on earnings day, fade 1 week after.
- Pre-Earnings Run: 10-14 days before → BUY if positive sentiment (60-65% win rate)
- Earnings Play: Day of earnings → BUY/SELL based on reaction (50-50, gambling)
- Post-Earnings Fade: 2-5 days after → SHORT if big pop (55-60% win rate)
NVDA: Feb 1 BUY @ $140 (run-up), Feb 15 @ $148 (+5.7%), Feb 16 earnings beat @ $158, Feb 17 SELL @ $158 (before fade), Feb 20 fades to $152. Total gain: +12.8% in 3 weeks!
Tax-Loss Harvesting
Sell losers in December for tax deduction, buy back in January after wash-sale rule expires.
- December 15-31: Sell any stock down 20%+ for the year
- Deduct losses on taxes (save 15-25% on taxes!)
- Wait 31 days (wash-sale rule)
- January 20-30: Buy back the SAME stock (if you still like it)
COIN: Bought @ $250 in Jan 2025, now $150 (Dec 2025) = -$100 loss. Dec 20: SELL @ $150, tax benefit: $100 loss × 20% = $20 saved. Jan 25: BUY back @ $155. You're back in, but saved $20 on taxes!
Triple/Quadruple Witching
4 times per year, stock options and futures expire same day: massive volume, high volatility.
- Strategy 1 (Conservative): Sell volatile positions week before, sit in cash during witching week, buy back the dip week after
- Strategy 2 (Aggressive): Buy short-term PUT/CALL options, profit from volatility spike, close before end of day
2026 Dates: March 21, June 20, September 18, December 18
Presidential Election Year Cycle
Stock market follows 4-year presidential cycle: Year 1 weakest, Year 2 weak, Year 3 STRONGEST, Year 4 strong.
- Year 3 Strategy (2027): Overweight stocks Jan-Nov, take maximum risk (safest year), expect +15% to +20% returns
- Year 2 Strategy (2026 = THIS YEAR): Normal allocation, expect +5% to +8% returns, mid-term elections in November (volatility)
Year 3 average: +16.5% (Pre-election rally!). Year 2 average: +5.2% (Mid-term jitters)
October Bottom Effect
Market often bottoms in October, then rallies Nov-Dec. Famous: "Stock market bottoms on October 19".
- Late September: Build cash (sell 20-30%)
- Early October: Wait for dip/scare
- Mid-October: BUY THE DIP aggressively
- November-December: Ride the rally (+5-8%)
Sep 30: SPY @ $575 (sell and wait). Oct 15: SPY @ $552 (market panics -4%). Oct 16: BUY SPY @ $552 (bottom). Dec 31: SPY @ $595 (+7.8% gain in 2.5 months!)
Dividend Capture Strategy
Buy stocks right before ex-dividend date, collect the dividend payment, sell after payment (or hold if you like stock).
- Buy: 1 day before Ex-Dividend Date
- Hold: Through ex-div date and record date
- Receive: Dividend payment
- Sell: After payment (or hold if you like stock)
Coca-Cola (KO): Feb 27 BUY @ $62.00, Feb 28 opens @ $61.52 (-$0.48 dividend adjustment), Apr 1 receive $0.48 dividend, Apr 2 SELL @ $62.50. Net: +$0.50/share on $62 investment = 0.8% in 5 weeks!
✅ Your Action Plan for 2026
Month-by-month strategy execution guide
January 2026
- Execute: January Effect (GTLB/IOT) ← DOING NOW
- Monitor: FOMC meeting Jan 28-29
- Learn: Track your positions, set alerts
February-April
- Hold: GTLB/IOT until targets hit
- Take: Partial profits at Target 1
- Research: Next opportunities (May selloff?)
May
- Consider: Selling 50% of portfolio
- Reason: "Sell in May" pattern
- Alternative: Just hold if positions strong
June-August
- Build: Cash reserves from profits
- Research: September effect opportunities
- Prepare: October bottom buys
September
- Reduce: Risk (weak month historically)
- Watch: For oversold quality stocks
- Build: Shopping list for October
October
- Buy: The October dip (if it happens)
- Target: Quality stocks down 10-15%
- Position: For November-December rally
November-December
- Ride: The Santa Rally
- Harvest: Tax losses (if any)
- Prepare: January Effect 2027!
🎯 Final Summary
Your Current Trade
Floor: $33.20 (-12%)
Ceiling: $54.50 (+44%)
Stretch: $65 (+72%)
Floor: $31.40 (-12%)
Ceiling: $50.75 (+42%)
Stretch: $60 (+68%)
Maximum loss: -$962 (if stops hit)
Expected profit: +$3,458 (43%)
Potential profit: +$5,599 (70%)
Next Strategies to Learn
- Santa Claus Rally (Dec 2026) - Easy, low risk
- October Bottom (Oct 2026) - Medium difficulty
- Sell in May (May 2027) - Requires discipline
- FOMC Patterns (ongoing) - Medium difficulty
- Presidential Year 3 (2027) - Long-term plan